Climate Projections and Preparing for Changes

As a society we have been emitting greenhouse gases from the burning of fossil fuels for over a century. As these gases trap heat from the sun within our atmosphere this is causing our climate to heat up.

Globally temperatures have risen by 0.6°C. In central parts of England we have seen them rise by almost 1°C. So we need to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions and also to prepare for the changes that these temperature increases will bring over the next 50 years. Preparing for these changes is called climate change adaptation.

The climate system is very complicated with many different effects at work but our best climate scientists at the Met Office say that over the next half century we can expect:

• Hotter, drier summers
• Warmer, wetter winters
• More frequent extremes of temperature, rainfall and wind
• Reduced air quality and higher levels of ozone

These changes will mean that, in Oxford, we are likely to see more floods in winter, and heat waves and droughts in the summer.

UK Climate Impacts Programme

The UK Climate Impacts Programme, based at Oxford University, has advice for individuals and householders on their website about preparing for climate change.

To be forward thinking it's important for Oxford City Council to think about future changes. This includes changes to the climate.

The UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) supply climate projections based on work by the Met Office. See findings for Oxford below.

Key Findings for Oxford (2030s)

• Average air temperature = 1.0 - 2.6 degrees C increase 'likely'
• The 'central estimate' for the warmest day of summer = 2 degrees C increase
• The 'central estimate' for winter precipitation (rain, sleet and snow) = 8.6% increase
• The 'central estimate' for summer precipitation = 9.4% decrease

Summary Climate Projections for Oxford in the 2030s (medium global emissions scenario)

How were these climate projections made?

Climate is a 30 year average of weather conditions such as temperature and rainfall. Climate scientists at the Met Office Hadley Centre used hundreds of  different model runs to plot how the climate might behave over the next 20-80 years. These model runs all came up with slightly different results of how climate might change within realistic ranges.  After also adding in work from other centres, the Met Office brought all these results together to create a 'probability curve' of likely projections for the UK, split up in to grid squares of 25km2 (25 by 25 km squares). Changes are relative to the climate period 1961-1990.

What are the key findings based on?

The key findings and information below is from the projections for Oxford's main grid square for the medium global emissions scenario for the 2030s (2020-2049).

What is the 'central estimate'?

The 'central estimate' means the middle point on the probability curve. This is not necessarily 'most likely' and usually does not occur at the peak of the graph but means that, based on the projections, conditions are as likely to be above it as below it, see image below.

What does 'likely' mean here?

These sort of projections cannot tell us what is 'most likely'. Instead the projections can tell us that average air temperatures are 'likely' to be between 1 and 2.6 degrees higher in the 2030s. By 'likely' we mean that only 10% of the models showed changes either less than 1 degree C or over 2.6 degrees C, see chart below.

Where can get I get more information?

• Download the full datasheet of projections below:
  Oxford, 2030s, Medium Emissions Scenario (88kB PDF)
• You can get full data for various time ranges and emissions scenarios through the UKCP User Interface. Contact the UK Climate Impacts Programme for more details.

Page last reviewed 24 Jan 2011